PRESS RELEASE
| For Immediate
Release
Tuesday, March 18, 2008 |
Contact:
Noel LaBine
763-477-3086 |
Wells Fargo Investment Strategist warns of quick
recovery from Fearsession
At a recent monthly
meeting of the local chapter of the National Association
of Industrial and Office Properties (NAIOP), noted Investment
Strategist for Wells Capital Management, James Paulsen,
warns of Fearsession. This event was held at the Marriott
Hotel in the Opus Park in Minnetonka , and Noel LaBine,
Executive Director of the Wright County Partnership, attended.
Using data from a
number of sources, Paulsen proved that our economy is fundamentally
very healthy. The sector of our economy that is hurting,
or in recession, includes housing and auto manufacturing.
This sector only makes up 7% of our economy. The remaining
93% of the economy has shown a 3.8% growth comparing the
last quarter to a year prior. Moreover, the fundamental
financial data of non-financial corporations overall show
excellent numbers with large amounts of cash on hand. The
data further makes the case that we are not in a recession
because it shows that the inventories are at record lows.
In other words, most companies have to keep on buying products
to keep on doing business, which is a guarantee that the
economy will keep pumping along. And by most assessments
that is exactly what they will be doing, since they have
had 12 quarters of back-to-back double-digit quarterly profit
increases. Overall, the strength of the aggregate balance
sheets hasn't been this strong since WWII.
Paulsen blames most
of the fear mongering on the media, who have been spending
an inordinate amount of ink on the sub-prime mortgage fiasco.
Hence, he has coined the term, “Fearsession”. Nevertheless,
Wall Street is also panicked, because so many of the major
players there have had to write down large losses in the
weakened housing market.
Also, it bears to
keep in mind that although consumer demand is down about
1%, this fact along with the weak dollar is causing significant
positive overall affects on the U.S. foreign trade balance.
Our foreign trade balance hasn't been this positive in almost
20 years. This phenomenon will add a lot of strength to
shoring up an already strong economy. And there are signs
that the home-building recession is probably hitting bottom.
For one thing, the home builder's stock index appears to
have bottomed out with significant increases in the index
in the last quarter. In most past recessions, including
the 1987 recession and the 1990 savings and loan fiasco,
this increase in the home builder's index has occurred with
the end of those recessions. Another notable is that the
home builder's affordability index is up 25%. The multiple
efforts to heal the sub-prime mortgage fiasco should soon
start to make a difference, and there are some people familiar
with the industry, who expect full recovery to that sector
within the next few months.
Meanwhile, there
is over $4 Trillion in money markets, because the Fearsession
has so many investors unwilling to make an investment. Paulsen
cautions investors to not wait too long. The Fearsession
could end very quickly, since fundamentally it is flawed.
The
Partnership exists to enhance the business climate of Wright
County and to help create more jobs in Wright County . The
strategies the Partnership uses to achieve its mission include
being an information resource and finding technical assistance;
aiding business development through Business Retention &
Expansion visits, providing financing resources, and providing
business information and training through seminars and workshops.
Also, the Partnership markets Wright County to business
site locators, and maintains an excellent website, which
includes a listing of commercial and industrial property
available in Wright County (see www.wrightpartnership.org
). The Partnership also assists with Workforce Development
and has gathered economic statistical information, which
is available on its website.